Transparency

Data & Methodology

Where every number in our tools comes from — the source, the formula, the year, and how confident we are. Nothing hidden, nothing overstated.

Our data principle

Much of the agritech sector markets precision it can't publicly justify — "45-day yield forecasts," "90% accuracy" — with no methodology attached. We take the opposite position.

Every figure here is either an official government number (which we cite) or an indicative range we label as such. Where reliable data doesn't exist, we say so and withhold the number rather than invent one. You should be able to check our work.

Confidence levels Core sources Crop Economics Engine Crop Compare Mandi Price Tracker Export Intelligence Business Plan Builder Update policy

Confidence levels

What our labels mean, so you can weight the numbers yourself.
High — official government figure, or well-documented and cross-checked. Medium — reasonable published estimate; ranges are indicative. Low — sparse public data; treat as directional only.

MSP (Minimum Support Price) figures are always High — they are set and published by the government. Cultivation costs, yields and export figures range from High (official CACP/APEDA data) to Medium (published estimates) depending on how well-documented each crop is.

Core sources

The official bodies we draw from.

Where a specific figure comes from one of these, we name it inline in the relevant tool. This page is the master reference for all of them.

Crop Economics Engine

Revenue, cost and profit per acre for paddy, wheat, maize, soybean, cotton and tur.

Formula

Revenue = Yield (qtl/acre) × Price (₹/qtl)
Cost = Labour + Seeds + Machinery + Irrigation (± insurance)
Profit = Revenue − Cost  ·  Break-even price = Cost ÷ Yield

Prices used

MSP 2026-27: paddy ₹2,441, wheat ₹2,585, maize ₹2,410, soybean ₹5,708, cotton ₹8,267 (seed cotton), tur ₹8,450. Chhattisgarh paddy also reflects the ₹3,100 effective rate under Krishak Unnati Yojana at state procurement.

An honesty note

For maize, soybean, cotton and tur, actual mandi prices often sit below MSP because procurement is weaker than for paddy and wheat. We flag this in the tool and treat MSP as an optimistic floor, not a guarantee.

States
6 (CG, MP, MH, UP, PB, HR)
Cost/yield basis
State-level indicative
Confidence
MSP: High · Cost/yield: Medium

Crop Compare

Side-by-side comparison with a transparent TheAgriGrid Score.

The score

Score = Profit 40% + Water 30% + Trend 20% + Export 10%

Profitability is normalised against a ₹0–₹40,000/acre net band. Water, demand trend and export pull are scored on defined scales (shown in the tool). The weighting is deliberately visible — you can disagree with it and read the components yourself.

When we withhold the score

For crops where the official A2+FL cost of cultivation isn't available (soybean, cotton, tur, groundnut, chana), we show the components but withhold the composite score rather than estimate profit from an unverified cost. Cotton is a special case — its yield is on a lint basis and not comparable to grain, so revenue isn't computed.

Crops
9
Dataset
Verified v1.0
Confidence
Per-crop, shown on card

Mandi Price Tracker

Weekly modal mandi prices by state, against MSP.

What it is — and isn't

We record the modal (most-traded) mandi rate for each tracked crop in each state roughly once a week from public AGMARKNET data. This is not a live feed. Prices move daily and vary mandi to mandi — always check your local mandi and the official portal before selling.

Why some crops say "coming soon"

Paddy and wheat have weekly data. For maize, soybean and tur we show the MSP reference but don't invent weekly prices — we add them only once we're collecting real data. We would rather show less than show made-up numbers.

Update
Weekly, by hand
Source
AGMARKNET / data.gov.in
Confidence
Representative modal, not an average

Export Intelligence

52 crops across 10 categories, plus FTA/market status.

Crop data

Each crop carries soil, water, climate, growing regions, indicative cost and yield, domestic price, export potential and top markets. Figures are indicative ranges from APEDA, ICAR and Ministry of Agriculture sources. High-confidence crops (e.g. mango, basmati, onion, cumin, gherkin) are deeply cross-checked; others are labelled Medium or Low and should be treated as directional.

FTA & market data

Free Trade Agreement status is drawn from Ministry of Commerce and DGFT (2026). We distinguish agreements in force from those concluded/signed but not yet in force. We do not publish "exact profit per market" numbers — those depend on variety, quality and timing and can't be stated reliably, so we give verified FTA/tariff status instead.

Crops
52
Markets
11 (with FTA status)
Confidence
Per-crop, labelled

Farm Business Plan Builder

A guided planning tool using standard business frameworks.

What it is

The Business Plan Builder walks a farmer through twelve business-planning frameworks — Business Model Canvas, unit economics, cash flow, SWOT, risk matrix, Porter's Five Forces, value chain, buyer segmentation, the 4Ps, Ansoff and Eisenhower — adapted for Indian farming, and assembles the answers into a plan you can print or share.

What it is not

It does not predict your income or guarantee profit. Every figure in the output is an estimate you entered. The break-even maths is arithmetic on your own numbers. The frameworks organise your thinking; they don't replace real prices, local knowledge, or professional advice. For figures, pair it with our Crop Economics Engine and Export Intelligence. It is a thinking aid, not financial advice.

Frameworks
12, farming-adapted
Data source
Your own inputs
Output
Printable plan draft

Update policy

How current this is, and how to flag an error.

MSP figures track the latest announced marketing season (currently 2026-27). Mandi prices are updated weekly by hand. Export, cost and yield data are reviewed periodically as new official figures are published. Each tool shows what it's based on.

If you find a number you believe is wrong or out of date, tell us — corrections make the reference stronger. This is a living methodology and will be versioned as it grows.

Nothing here is financial, legal or investment advice. Always verify current figures against the official source before making a decision.

TheAgriGrid

Get the weekly briefing

Independent, evidence-based intelligence on Indian agriculture — tools, data and analysis for people who make decisions.

Free. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.